A new 'Yalta'? Trump and Putin push for a meeting that Xi is wary of hosting

Putin sees a chance to secure an agreement to end the war in Ukraine on his terms. Trump— battered by his Republican Party's recent electoral losses — sees a moment for the history books, with possible movement towards a three-way agreement on nuclear arms control.

For Xi, however, it is an unpredictable gathering full of risks. The Republican president's improvisational style clashes with Xi's scripted approach to high-profile events. And ​Trump's hope for arms control rubs against the reality that China — which has far fewer nuclear weapons than the US or Russia — considers itself a nuclear underdog.

"This is something the Chinese hate," said Edgard Kagan, a former ​senior Biden White House official for East Asia now with the Centre for Strategic and International Studies, a think tank. "I think it’s fair to say the Chinese do ⁠not want arms control discussions with the United States.

And they certainly don’t want to do it with the United States and Russia, because it suggests that they accept the framing that they are now a major nuclear ​power that should be subject to similar restrictions.

"For smaller governments not at the table, including Ukraine and Taiwan, the idea of the big powers possibly cutting a private deal without them is a cause of deep unease.

The meeting would be ​Trump’s latest in a series of diplomatic spectacles over his nearly six years as US president, including his prior meetings with Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un. None of those meetings produced a breakthrough.

A senior Trump administration official said "we do not expect to get to any kind of agreement" on nuclear issues but added "it's time for China to sort of step up" and talk about the topic.

"China is in communication with relevant parties regarding a meeting between the three heads of state," said a spokesperson for Beijing's embassy ​in Washington on Friday. "We have nothing to share at the moment. "Russia's embassy in Washington did not respond to a request for comment.

Some nations fear a new 'Yalta' conference. The proposed meeting has drawn comparisons, particularly in Russia, with the 1945 Yalta ​Conference between the US, Britain and the Soviet Union that formalised spheres of influence, set the stage for the post-World War Two order and became shorthand for great-power deals imposed on smaller countries.

For Russian nationalists, the prospect of an updated version of ‌Yalta has generated ⁠excitement, potentially opening the door to an agreement to end thefour-year-old Ukraine conflictin a manner that would favour Moscow. Just holding the meeting elevates Russia to the status of a superpower alongside China and the US, they say.

“It shows who is important in the world: We are, China and the West," Russian nationalist ideologue Alexander Dugin. "It’s deeply symbolic — it’s a confirmation of a multi-polar world that the West denies.”But the possible meeting has generated anxiety from Kyiv to Tokyo, governments' reactions.

"We really don't want this to turn into 'Yalta 2, 3, 4,' with a redistribution of influence," Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said last month. The optics are awkward for ​China, which was not invited in 1945 and tries to ​present itself as an advocate for smaller countries.⁠A reluctant host.

Trump's suggestion of nuclear talks is a nonstarter for Beijing, said Chinese academics interviewed by. Reuters. Russia and the United States each possess more than 5,000 nuclear warheads, while China has around 500, although Beijing is rapidly expanding its arsenal.

Still, next week Xi will play host. Beijing and Moscow have grown closer in recent years, trading ​oil and gas and military know-how. But they have taken different approaches to the potential trilateral meeting.

While Moscow sought a conversation on the war in Ukraine, Beijing has ​resisted putting that topic on ⁠the agenda, briefed on the meeting and a European diplomat, both speaking on the condition of anonymity.

A US official said on Friday that Trump was not likely to raise the war in Ukraine and that three-way talks were not the proper forum to do so. "Suggestions are being exchanged regarding a possible agenda," Dmitry Peskov, Putin's spokesman,.

"In any case, the meeting will certainly be interesting. And, of course, it will capture the attention of ⁠people all over ​the world. "That is also Trump's hope.

Facing a Democratic-controlled Congress next year, he may be seeking wins abroad. An agreement on arms or help ​ending thewar with Irancould burnish his legacy.

"The president will undoubtedly be seeking to use this trip to reassert leadership, authority, demonstrate his statesmanship capabilities, and essentially show off on the international stage," said Kurt Tong, a former senior State Department official dealing with East Asia, now a ​managing partner at the Asia Group consultancy.