Oil rises as risks of prolonged Mideast conflict heighten supply worries

Brent rose ⁠to its highest level since July 24 in the previous session, as traders ​continued to build a risk premium into prices amid heightened tensions around the Strait of ​Hormuz, a key artery for global crude shipments. Iran warned on Monday that energy infrastructure across the Gulf, including U.S. oil and gas interests, was vulnerable.

This follows tit-for-tat strikes during the weekend, with no sign ​of progress towards a diplomatic breakthrough. On Saturday, U.S. forces struck three Iranian oil tankers, including ​one near Kharg Island, Iran's main oil export hub,.

S. Central Command. The attacks followed ‌strikes ⁠by Iran's Revolutionary Guards on U.S. warships operating in the region.

"The recent escalation of the Middle East conflict has increased the likelihood of a prolonged standoff, punctuated by calibrated military action by the U.S. and Iran. This could see Persian Gulf supply remain ​constrained through the rest ​of 2026," Daniel Hynes, ⁠an analyst at ANZ, said in a note.

"We don't expect a full return to pre-war throughput until late Q1 or early ​Q2 2027. "MARKET OUTLOOKMeanwhile, Goldman Sachs raised its Brent and WTI price forecasts ​by $5 to $85 ⁠and $80, respectively, for December 2026 and to $80 and $75, respectively, for 2027, reflecting its new assumption that Middle East shipping disruptions continue into 2027.

In financial services platform Marex's September commodity outlook, analyst ⁠Ed ​Meir said that as long as the war continues, ​which it thinks it will given "the multitude of issues that have yet to be addressed", crude oil prices ​will likely remain elevated through year-end.