Dollar flat near one-week high as investors await Warsh's Jackson Hole debut

The dollar index, which measures ⁠the currency against six major peers, was little changed at 99.13 in early Asian trade. It has risen 0.3% ​this week but remains on track for a second straight monthly decline of 0.7% after U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott ​Bessent said the Treasury would increase buybacks of longer-dated bonds.

That has fuelled concerns that efforts to suppress borrowing costs could debase the dollar. Market participants are now keenly awaiting Warsh's debut speech in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, for clues on how he would approach monetary ​policy and tame inflation, although those expectations were tempered by his opposition to providing explicit forward guidance on rates.

Some ​other Fed officials reiterated on Thursday their ongoing concerns about U.S. inflation and signalled they were open to rate hikes. "Uncertainty over the ‌Fed's ⁠reaction function and concerns that policymakers may be placing less emphasis on inflation control have increased market focus on Chair Warsh's Jackson Hole remarks," Sim Moh Siong, FX strategist at OCBC, said in a note.

For the dollar to weaken meaningfully following the Treasury's buyback announcement, markets would need evidence that the Fed was prepared to help contain ​Treasury yields, though this appeared ​unlikely, he added. Traders were ⁠pricing in roughly 35% odds of a rate hike at the Fed's September meeting, rising to 75% by December.

Treasury yields remain elevated, with those on benchmark U.S. 10-year ​notes last at 4.676%. In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin gained 0.5% to $80,620.33, on track for a nearly ​30% gain ⁠in August that would be its biggest monthly gain since late 2024.

The Australian dollar was up nearly 0.1% to hit a three-month high of $0.72 as rate hike bets built up. The New Zealand dollar climbed 0.2% to $0.5960. The Canadian dollar held flat ⁠at $1.3844 ​and was heading for a second month of decline after trade tensions ​with the U.S. escalated further.

Elsewhere, Brent crude futures hovered near $90 a barrel after a Wall Street Journal report suggested President Donald Trump had rejected the idea of re-establishing ​the terms of the memorandum of understanding the U.S. signed with Iran in June.