Pakistan's quiet resilience in first quarter of FY27

Pakistan didn't just hold its ground; it moved forward. The latest economic scorecard reflects steady policy under Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif's government, close coordination with the military leadership under Field Marshal Syed Asim Munir, and an economic team led by Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb that kept reforms on course.

Above all, it reflects the hard work of ordinary Pakistanis. Start with the number that matters most in a crisis. The State Bank's foreign exchange reserves reached $21.5 billion, an all-time high, up 52% in a year.

This safety net has kept the rupee stable, even gaining 1.5%, and keeps fuel, medicine and other essential imports flowing. Import cover has risen from 2.2 to 3.3 months, a vital breathing room in turbulent times.

Pakistan's earners didn't slow down either. Exports grew 11% to $11.2 billion, with September's goods exports the highest in 20 months. Technology stood out: IT exports rose 18% to $1.25 billion, and freelancers earned a record $550 million, up 46%.

Picture a young developer in Multan or a designer in Peshawar winning clients in London and Dubai from a laptop. Overseas Pakistanis once again showed how much home means to them.

Remittances rose 14% to $10.9 billion, mainly from Saudi Arabia, the UAE, the UK and the EU, while the Roshan Digital Account has drawn $14.3 billion across nearly 976,000 accounts. Every dollar is a vote of confidence in Pakistan's future.

That confidence is spreading. Foreign direct investment rose 20% to $720 million while investors worldwide held back. All three major rating agencies have upgraded Pakistan into the 'B' category with stable outlooks, rewarding the fiscal discipline and steady engagement with lenders central to Finance Minister Aurangzeb's approach.

The IMF programme is firmly on track, with a staff-level agreement reached for $1.2 billion. Pakistanis at home are investing too. Stock market investors jumped 55% to over 656,000, and 85% of new investors are Gen-Z and Millennials.

Four companies listed this quarter, raising Rs4.6 billion, roughly five times last year's total. Pakistan's voice abroad is growing as well. On November 1, Pakistan became chair of the G-24, the bloc of developing countries founded in 1971 to coordinate positions on global finance.

Finance Minister Aurangzeb, who will lead it, put it powerfully: "The future of developing economies is not peripheral to the future of the global economy. It is central to it. " Pakistan will push for affordable development financing, fairer debt solutions and climate resilience.

Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif called it a "significant diplomatic milestone", and President Asif Ali Zardari termed it an important opportunity to represent the developing world. What does this mean for businesses and jobs? The policy rate, which hit 22% in June 2024, now stands at 12%, and cheaper money is flowing.

Loans to small and medium businesses rose 66% to Rs1.14 trillion, housing finance grew 72%, and lending to farmers and auto buyers rose roughly 31% and 34%. That means shops opening, homes built, harvests financed and jobs created.

The country is also learning to stand on its own feet. The FBR collected Rs3.1 trillion in three months, beating its target, while income tax filers jumped 45% to 5.77 million, reflecting the tax reforms and digitisation championed by the finance ministry.

Government debt has fallen to 68% of GDP from 75% in FY23. Momentum is visible on the ground too. Car sales rose 28%, cement and petroleum sales grew, and large-scale manufacturing is expanding.

Privatisation of power distribution companies – Fesco, Gepco and Iesco – is advancing, drawing local and foreign interest. And when fuel prices rose, a Rs75 billion relief scheme reached more than 12 million citizens who depend on motorcycles, rickshaws and small cars.

Is the job done? Not yet. Global events have pushed up prices at home, many families still feel the squeeze, and sustaining reforms will require patience.

But stronger reserves, a wider tax base, lower debt and returning investor confidence are the foundation for what people need: stronger support for low-income families, new schools, hospitals and roads, and, over time, real relief from the cost of living.

This achievement belongs to everyone who made it possible: the worker and the farmer, the young freelancer, the overseas Pakistani sending money home, and a leadership and economic team that held their nerve through a turbulent quarter. The writer Jamella Zarif is an Islamabad-based investigative journalist.