And does the country have sufficient foreign exchange reserves to meet its external

“And does the country have sufficient foreign exchange reserves to meet its external obligations? Viewed through these lenses, Pakistan's recent debt story is considerably more nuanced than the Rs100 tr…”
And does the country have sufficient foreign exchange reserves to meet its external obligations? Viewed through these lenses, Pakistan's recent debt story is considerably more nuanced than the Rs100 trillion headline suggests.
The absolute stock of debt may continue to rise in rupee terms while the burden of that debt relative to the size of the economy falls. Another important indicator is debt servicing.
Annual interest expenditure has reportedly fallen from around Rs8.9 trillion to Rs6.9 trillion, while interest payments as a share of total government revenue have fallen from about 61% in FY24 to 35% in FY26.
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State Bank reserves have risen from around $3 billion three and a half years ago to $18.5 billion, increasing import cover from barely 2.4 weeks to roughly three months.
While this remains below the comfortable level, the substantially rebuilt reserve buffer has significantly strengthened Pakistan's ability to meet external obligations. The composition and maturity of debt are as important as its size.
Longer maturities reduce the risk of having to refinance very large amounts of debt every year. Perhaps the biggest historical risk has been the external debt since it has to be serviced in foreign currency.
Yet Pakistan remains below investment grade and needs further progress to achieve investment-grade status and access international markets on more favourable terms. The challenge now is to ensure that these improvements are not temporary.
We need to reach a point where debt no longer crowds out development, where interest payments no longer consume revenues needed for education and infrastructure, and where economic growth itself steadily reduces the burden of past borrowing. The Rs100 trillion figure makes a dramatic headline.
Written by Saba Qamar
Aman-e-Pakistan Senior Journalist & Bureau Reporter
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